An Obama flip-flop?

Looks like Obama was for windfall taxes on oil companies before being against it.

From Reuters (Jun 2008): Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama said on Monday he would impose a windfall profits tax on U.S. oil companies as he sought political gain from Americans' pain over high gasoline prices. I'll make oil companies like Exxon pay a tax on their windfall profits, and we'll use the money to help families pay for their skyrocketing energy costs and other bills," the Illinois senator said.

From the Wall Street Journal (Dec 2008): Now with the election safely over, a transition spokesman explained this week that the drop in oil prices to $50 a barrel has made the windfall tax a dead letter. Left unexplained was why the oil companies suddenly decided to stop profiteering, or manipulating commodity prices, or whatever it was they were supposedly doing. But be thankful for small mercies. It is reassuring that Mr. Obama's calls to arbitrarily soak an unpopular business were merely rooted in political expediency, not some economic philosophy.

Of course, Exxon Mobil for its part is projected to make about $46 billion in profits for 2008. Yes, $46 billion.

Exxon Mobil Corp. Chairman and Chief Executive Rex W. Tillerson will receive a 10% base salary increase of $187,000 to $2.06 million in 2009 plus 225,000 shares of restricted stock, according to a filing with regulators. The salary boost just about matches the profit increase of 11% that Wall Street analysts expect for the oil giant's 2008 profit, now pegged at just over $46 billion, according to a survey by FactSet Research.

Rhythmic review

From Michiko Kakutani's review of a book about the 2008 presidential race written in rhyme by Calvin Trillin. The review itself was written in rhyme by the Japanese American Times reviewer Michiko Kakutani. Her rhyme is a keeper.

There once was a poet named Bud Trillin,
Who cast George Bush as his villain.
He sounded like a new Ogden Nash,
Writing doggerel with real panache,
Chronicling the reign of Bush Two,
And Rove’s quest to wipe out the blue.
The prez was famous for gaffes,
Which Trillin played for some laughs.
He painted Bush as a shrub,
With a strong impulse to flub,
While taking on the Pentagon
And Cheney and the neo-cons.
In our nation’s hard times,
Trillin sought funny lines.
Some said he made mere frivolity
Out of real issues of polity.
But others toasted his wicked wit,
And gave him lots of Amazon hits.

From Katrina to Enron to the war in Iraq,
Bush’s missteps weren’t hard to attack.
W.M.D.’s that didn’t exist led to a desert fiasco,
While greed and a hurricane created domestic disasters.
In the Gulf, we were caught in a quagmire,
While at home, things looked increasingly dire.
This mess helped spawn two earlier books
By providing some embarrassing hooks.
Now the poet’s turned to the ’08 election,
Skewering the candidates for our delectation.
There was Rudy, McCain, Huckabee and Romney,
Obama, Edwards, Dodd and, of course, Hillary.
All of them tracked from Iowa to New Hampshire,
In caucuses and primaries from Des Moines to Manchester.

The former first lady versus Senator Obama
Made for lots of gripping political drama.
Bud noted Barack’s “eloquence at his command”
And how he got Dems to eat from his hand.
As for McCain, Bud saw flip-flops at a cost
From the straight-talking man who in 2000 lost,
He’d become someone fond of the tactics of Rove,
Especially as all his poll ratings dove.
While critics said the poet was partisan,
Fans hailed him as a talented artisan.

McCain’s pick of Palin was more grist for the mill,
Caribou Barbie saw herself as a tool of God’s will,
At least that’s how Trillin saw the lass from Alaska,
Whom Republicans hoped would play in Nebraska.
Both McCain and Palin tried to act mavericky,
But many thought of her selection as gimmicky.
The right was glad she was instantly famous,
But foes just saw a complete ignoramus.

Everything changed when the Dow took a dive.
Bankers on Wall Street questioned how they’d survive,
And folks turned from talk about lipstick and pigs
To worrying how they’d stay in their digs.
More bad fallout from the reign of 43,
Which hit the poor, the rich and the bourgeoisie.
Republicans suffered from this new twist of fate,
And McCainiacs wondered if it was too late.
Mac touted a guy known as Joe the Plumber,
But his populist gambit became a bummer.
Trillin recounted this all with verve and élan,
Charting the candidates’ every slogan and plan.

Trillin followed the race to the end,
Seeing what message the voters would send.
This deadline poet began his last lines
As anxious Democrats looked for a sign.
The networks announced that Obama had won,
A momentous end to a historic run.
Obama’s mantra of change helped win the election,
And promised America a brand-new direction.
Trillin praised the country’s choice to reboot
In verse that was witty, quick and acute.
What had begun two books back as a wry chronicle of woe
Became a tribute to the nation’s ability to grow.

On Barack Obama being President...

Occasionally, I read Markos' blog. Dailykos has a reputation for being a super-opinionated liberal blog, and I try not to get caught up in the marching rhetoric. Every once in a while I find myself getting sucked up. Markos got me early in October with this piece where he speaks in a fiercely quiet way about the change we are witnessing.

So with conservatives bracing for the worst, they won't experience the kind of pain we did in 2004. Not unless we deliver a defeat even worse than their worst nightmares. And I'll be honest with you -- I want them to hurt as much as we did. I want their spirits crushed, their backs broken. The day after the election, I want to see an electoral battlefield littered with defeated Republicans, their ranks demoralized, their treasury in heavy debt, and no real leadership to take the helm. I want a vacuum so complete, that a bloody leadership battle between the neocons, theocons, and corporate cons shakes the GOP to its core, and leaves it fractured and ill-equipped to stymie the progressive agenda, much less ramp up for an even bleaker (for them) 2010.
We're not out to win this thing. We're out to crush them. And that's going to require a level of engagement beyond anything you've ever done before. It'll mean more phone banking, more canvassing, more donating. Work on this site keeps me from working the phones or walking precincts (my wife has helped out on those fronts), but I've surrendered a significant portion of my income, way more than my family can really afford, on behalf of the cause. We've all got something to offer, whether it's time or money, and now's the time to offer what we can…

I am proud to say that I did my little bit in convincing people the need for a positive change – through blogging and otherwise. I am happy that I did - however small it might be. I hope for a better future, not just for our country, not just for our people, but for the world at large. The new President has a host of problems that he will have to shoulder and hit the ground running. On top of the agenda is the economy and distressed homeowners. Add to that the dangers posed by creeping inflation and rising unemployment and one has the recipe for disaster. Outside of the country, it is a fact that Afghanistan is hurting badly and Iraq is still in a quagmire. With global recession and a bellicose Russia he will have a lot to deal with internally and externally. A lot will be expected of him over the next four years and my hope is that he delivers. Time will tell. For now I am happy.

In light of the fact that President Obama faces a Great Depression like scenario in front of him, a historical parallel drawn by George Packer in the New Yorker today is handy:

On the night of his landslide victory over Hoover, in 1932, in the depths of the Great Depression, Roosevelt had an intimate conversation with his son James:
"You know, Jimmy," Franklin said, "all my life I have been afraid of only one thing—fire. Tonight I think I'm afraid of something else."
"Afraid of what, Pa?"
"I'm just afraid that I may not have the strength to do this job." He paused reflectively. "After you leave me tonight, Jimmy, I am going to pray. I am going to pray that God will help me, that he will give me the strength and the guidance to do this job and to do it right. I hope that you will pray for me, too, Jimmy."

Jonathan Curley, a banker who voted for Bush Sr. once and Bush Jr. twice writes in the Christian Science Monitor on what he learnt while campaigning for Sen. Obama.

I've learned that this election is about the heart of America. It's about the young people who are losing hope and the old people who have been forgotten. It's about those who have worked all their lives and never fully realized the promise of America, but see that promise for their grandchildren in Barack Obama. The poor see a chance, when they often have few. I saw hope in the eyes and faces in those doorways.

Read on here.

Voting Day Stories - III

The lines at the firehouse where my wife and our four year old stopped to vote was relatively small. It was a quick affair and she called me and said that all went through smoothly. The workflow built into the voting machine in New Jersey follow a two step process. First you get to pick all of the candidates for the state, senate and the Presidential races of your choice. Once selected, you then press a button to 'vote' for the selected choices. My wife said that she had no problems selecting the various choices on the ballot. My wife then told me that when the time came to press the button to cast the ‘vote’, she did not do it. I asked her what happened. Did she not feel up to the great task of actually participating in this final rite of passage after being battered with promises and ads over the last two years? She then told me over the phone that she made our four year old son do it. I think she did that in the belief that what she did today at the polls was more for our children than for ourselves. Yes, to a large extent we do these things for ourselves, but in the end run, we are here to pass the baton and we better pass a cleaner baton than a ruined old, dirty one to our children.

Voting day stories - II

Watching this video of over a 1000 students at my alma mater lined up at 6am this morning to vote is indeed heartening...

Voting day stories

My friend just returned from voting at PS 149 in New York City. She told me that she got on line at 7:00 am in the morning. There were hundreds in front of her in the line to vote and in about an hour, hundreds had gathered up behind her. She got to vote at 9:15 am and by then three voting machines had broken down. This added to the state of confusion at the voting booth and she told me that election officials were seen walking around distributing pamphlets to the people lined up instructing them to call the appropriate 1-800 numbers complaining that voting machines that were supposed to reliably work broke down just a couple of hours into the process. She said that she was glad to actually cast her vote and added that even if New York is not a swing state, she wanted to tell her grandchildren that she participated in a historic election. My wife plans to vote in the afternoon today.

Palin might invoke 'Pallin' around with Kali' surprise

Heidi Klum (the model) was dressed for Halloween as the fearsome Indian goddess Kali (the celestial consort of Lord Shiva). Just a couple of days back, Ms. Klum made news by endorsing Barack Obama for President. Here is why I am little scared with these two otherwise inane developments...

I am concerned that this Halloween costume gag might be used by the spinmeisters at the McCain / Palin camp to now state conclusively that Sen. Obama is now pallin' around with mythological Hindu goddesses who brandish fearsome weapons of mass destruction emanating from multiple upper limb like extremities thus invoking and fortifying all the negative images, ideas and thoughts that the McCain camp has put into middle America about Sen. Obama.

Of course, I am only kidding. Nevertheless, this does highlight the puerile nature of the campaign that the McCain/Palin camp have conducted thus far. As easy as it has been for Heidi to transform herself into this blue skinned goddesses holding a severed head, the McSame camp had tried their best to cast Sen. Obama variously as a closet terrorist, foreign policy newbie, baby killer, gay activist, supporter for introducing porn to preteens, Iran pal, embryo extinguisher, firebrand Muslim, fire breathing preacher's best friend and finally when nothing else seemed to stick, a naive socialist.

It is only in our best interests to go out and vote for whoever you think is going to build this country going forward. My choice is clear. Make yours tomorrow. We must, as a nation, make sure that we just go out and vote tomorrow - even if that is the only one thing that you accomplish tomorrow - even if it means hiring that babysitter - even if it means driving 50 miles to the nearest polling booth - even if it means waiting at the polling booth because they take 2 hours in ascertaining your identity - even if it means you will lose out on a wage earning day - this election is too important for any one to pass up - for our futures, for our children's futures and for the future of the world at large!! Of course, in the end we get what we collectively deserve.

More pictures of the deadly Ms. Klum here.

Wonder if the results the day after will follow what the polls predict... Pollster latest here. Meanwhile here are some tips for remaining sane until Election Day.

Barack Bashing Chronicles

Hilzoy is not too happy with the latest salvo... But this latest reference goes way, way below the belt...

An e-mail was sent to Jewish voters that likens a vote for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama to events that led up to the Holocaust. "Jewish Americans cannot afford to make the wrong decision on Tuesday, November 4th, 2008," the e-mail reads. "Many of our ancestors ignored the warning signs in the 1930s and 1940s and made a tragic mistake. Let's not make a similar one this year!"

Voting day idiosyncrasy

On why voting on Tuesday made sense in mid 1800's and does not make sense now...

The reason we vote on Tuesday makes perfect sense — at least it did in 1845. To understand the decision Congress made that year, let’s imagine ourselves as members of early agrarian American society. Saturday was for farming, Sunday was the Lord’s day, Monday was required for travel to the county seat where the polling places were, Tuesday you voted, Wednesday you returned home, and Thursday it was back to work. It’s a safe bet that today most Americans don’t follow the same schedule as our farming forefathers. In fact, for many, Tuesday is one of the most inconvenient days to hold an election. One in four people who didn’t vote in 2006 said that they were “too busy” or had “conflicting work or school schedules.”

On Powell for Obama

Today the media is drunk on the fact that Gen. Colin Powell has endorsed Sen. Barack Obama's candidacy for the presidency of the U.S. I am not sure if this is that much of a big deal.

Here was one man who could single handedly have prevented the Iraq fiasco. Here was one man who could have asked tougher questions to his boss and his direct reports before he lied to the United Nations (full transcript here) about the State of Iraq amassing WMDs. I remember watching that speech and actually believing him. I had a funny feeling that a highly decorated military man would not stand up in front of the United Nations and spew lies. At the end of that speech, I was thinking that it might be the right move after all - Iraq and Saddam Hussein must indeed be stopped in their tracks.

I also remember a feeling of betrayal that swept across the nation when it was conclusively proved that all the talk of finding stockpiles of yellow cake uranium, WMDs and chemical weapons turned out to be a complete fabrication. Remember vividly…
I am not so sure if this endorsement is such a big deal especially when Sen. Barack Obama actually voted against going to war in Iraq.

Detail from a painting by Winslow Homer (1836 - 1910), 'Sounding Reveille', oil on canvas, 13" X 19", 1865 (image from a Christie's book)

On robocalling and smearing your opponent

As Sen. McCain tries 'last ditch' efforts at smearing Sen. Obama through automated robocalls that aim to tie Obama to Ayers, it is instructive to look back to the year 2000 when McCain was running against sitting POTUS George Bush in the primaries and they used automated calls in a vicious campaign to smear each other.

An article from Feb 2000 in the Times here:

Supporters of Mr. McCain reported receiving automated telephone calls in which the recorded voice of the evangelist Pat Robertson urged them to ''protect unborn babies and restore religious freedom'' by opposing Mr. McCain. As he has on his cable television program, Mr. Robertson, a supporter of Mr. Bush, accuses Mr. McCain of having chosen as his national chairman ''a vicious bigot who wrote that conservative Christians in politics are anti-abortion zealots, homophobes and would-be censors.''

Adrienne Karns, who lives in the Detroit suburb of Birmingham, said she received a call at 5:30 this afternoon that issued a ''Catholic voters alert.'' Then, she said, the anonymous voice told her ''that George Bush had gone to Bob Jones University, and Bob Jones University was anti-Catholic, and George Bush was anti-Catholic.'' Then, she continued, ''It said John McCain was pro-Catholic and I should vote for John McCain.''

It is clear that McCain is using the same trashy tactics from 2000 which the Republican vote machine seems to have perfected then. Of course, this time around it does not look like it might work that well (according to this study). Thanks to Marc Ambinder for the link...

Mulling the Kohut/Bradley lacunae

Here, I found a poll telling us that Obama has a 14 point lead over McCain. Yesterday I was driving around our predominantly blue collar town and came across no less than 15 McCain/Palin signs conspicuously stuck in the front lawns. I managed to count exactly 0 Obama/Biden signs. All this in the state of New Jersey which is supposed to be a solidly democratic state. This is a phenomenon that I noticed not just in our town, but towns all over this state. Often times, in the course of this election, we see the overwhelming lead in all the polls mentioned but little enthusiasm in the suburbs and homesteads… I guess it could be that a lot of people actually (inherently) support Barack Obama, but are actually not too happy with wearing it out on their front lawns. They are not too sure what their white neighbors over on the other side might think about them and hence plan to play it by ear. They are just content with going up to the polling booth and expressing their desires in secret.

Or maybe we are all wrong about this thing – the whole lead in the polls… Are these polls actually right? Are people telling us the truth? In this regard, we need to understand two factors that have been poorly quantified into the statistical engines that drive final tallies coming out of these polls: The Bradley effect and the Kohut Lacuna…

The Bradley Effect:

Bradley Effect, named for the black mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley, who lost the California governorship in 1982 despite polls that had showed him in the lead, apparently because a small percentage of respondents would rather lie to a pollster than admit to opposing a candidate on the ground of his race.

The Kohut Lacuna:

Andrew Kohut, of the Pew Research Center, published an Op-Ed in the Times about the failure of polls to predict the outcome of a primary in New Hampshire between Clinton and Obama. He had a theory: undetected racism among working-class whites. Clinton, he noted, beat Obama among whites with family incomes under fifty thousand dollars and also among those who hadn’t attended college. “Poorer, less well-educated white people refuse surveys more often than affluent, better-educated whites,” Kohut wrote. “Polls generally adjust their samples for this tendency. But here’s the problem: these whites who do not respond to surveys tend to have more unfavorable views of blacks than respondents who do the interviews.”

On top of the effects of respondents lying to pollsters, it also looks like poorer, less well-educated voters are less likely to agree to answer the questions posed.

Looking at these polls and hearing the chest thumping from various democratic leaning blogs, I fervently hope that people are not lying to the pollster and poorer, less educated people know that they need to vote with their interests of self preservation at heart.

Look, I know that Obama is a politician and there is only so much we could actually expect from politicians. Remember the adage, politics makes for strange bedfellows… But the effort and the sincerity behind Obama’s ideas for propping up the middle class and the fact that he actually mentions that health care is a right to be enjoyed by all citizens should make the poorer, less educated whites think again and disprove the Kohuts and Bradley’s.

The pictures above depict the watercolor paintings of dead birds by artist Noel Grunwaldt. She is currently on with her first solo show at the Stellan Holm Gallery in Chelsea. The show runs from Sept 12 - Oct 25. She has an MA in Studio Arts from SUNY Albany and lives and works in upstate NY.

Plumbing the depths using Joe the Plumber

Yesterday, Sen. McCain mentioned ‘Joe the Plumber’ 21 times at the debates. Apparently, Joe is some rich plumber in Ohio who happened to tell Obama that his plumbing business is set to make more than $250,000 a year and Obama’s tax policies might hit the business hard.

Big deal! Maybe Joe Plumber needs to get a couple of facts straight.

Only 2% of all households in these United States make more than $250,000 a year. That leaves 98% of all households below the $250,000 limit. The median income of all households in the United States is about $50,000. The tax policy proposed by Obama will only hit people making more than five times the median income = 2% of the population!

So, yesterday it was clear that Sen. McCain was speaking to the richest 2% of the people in the United States.

My response is this: If Joe the Plumber was asked to pay a little more taxes, suck it up and pay. You owe it to the people. The BS about trickle down or free market or laissez faire have not worked. A quick look at executive compensation and income disparities in the United States will tell you that. We need sensible policies that will give the 98% a chance.

Well, the machinations of the Jonah McPalin campaign have produced a motley cast of characters. Last week Gov. Palin gave us Joe Six-pack, this week Sen. McCain introduced us to Joe Plumber. Who know, next week we might need to get ready for Joe the Lyncher.


This ad from the Obama campaign tells us of the percentage of times McCain voted with Bush. In McCain's own words!!

Debate reaction

Yesterday's debate followed the same format as the last two McCain/Obama debates. So much so that I will use the same words that I used to describe the last debate - because it fit the bill this time too...

Watching the debates yesterday, I noticed a wheezing, breathless, cantankerous old man barely managing to latch onto questions and mounting vapid combative responses at the debate yesterday.

No doubts, Obama won. Of course, this time, McCain anger and frustration were on full display. Say it ain't so, Joe Plumber...

Stark white chronicles

The stark whiteness of the McCain campaign is undeniable. Every once in a while it spills its creamy guts out in public… This bit is both sad and funny from the weekend Times…

There are indeed so few people of color at McCain events that a black senior writer from The Tallahassee Democrat was mistakenly ejected by the Secret Service from a campaign rally in Panama City in August, even though he was standing with other reporters and showed his credentials. His only apparent infraction was to look glaringly out of place.

Subconcious associations

A study about how people might subconsciously link being American with being white...

On a conscious level, the participants had no trouble identifying Obama and Clinton as American, and Blair as a foreigner. But Devos and Ma found that the subconscious associations mattered: People who were slower to see Obama as American on a subconscious level were less likely to be willing to vote for the senator from Illinois than people who more easily associated him with American symbols. This was true of both Republicans and Democrats.

You could take an implicit association test here.

Martin Luther King recalling when he first became painfully aware of prejudice:

When I was 14, I had travelled from Atlanta to Dublin, Georgia, with a dear teacher of mine, Mrs. Bradley; she's dead now. I had participated there in a oratorial contest sponsored by the Negro Elks. It turned out to be a memorable day, for I had succeeded in winning the contest. My subject, I recall, ironically enough, was "The Negro and the Constitution." Anyway, that night Mrs. Bradley and I were on a bus returning to Atlanta, and at a small town along the way some white passengers boarded the bus, and the white driver ordered us to get up and give the whites our seats. We didn't move quickly enough to suit him; so began cursing us, calling us "black sons of bitches." I intended to stay right in the seat, but Mrs. Bradley finally urged me up, saying we had to obey the law. And so we stood up in the aisle for the 90 miles to Atlanta. That night will never leave my memory. It was the angriest I have ever been in my life.

- published in a Jan 65' Playboy interview with Martin Luther King.

Edward Winkleman unloads on the McCain/Palin race baiting.