Mulling the Kohut/Bradley lacunae

Here, I found a poll telling us that Obama has a 14 point lead over McCain. Yesterday I was driving around our predominantly blue collar town and came across no less than 15 McCain/Palin signs conspicuously stuck in the front lawns. I managed to count exactly 0 Obama/Biden signs. All this in the state of New Jersey which is supposed to be a solidly democratic state. This is a phenomenon that I noticed not just in our town, but towns all over this state. Often times, in the course of this election, we see the overwhelming lead in all the polls mentioned but little enthusiasm in the suburbs and homesteads… I guess it could be that a lot of people actually (inherently) support Barack Obama, but are actually not too happy with wearing it out on their front lawns. They are not too sure what their white neighbors over on the other side might think about them and hence plan to play it by ear. They are just content with going up to the polling booth and expressing their desires in secret.

Or maybe we are all wrong about this thing – the whole lead in the polls… Are these polls actually right? Are people telling us the truth? In this regard, we need to understand two factors that have been poorly quantified into the statistical engines that drive final tallies coming out of these polls: The Bradley effect and the Kohut Lacuna…

The Bradley Effect:

Bradley Effect, named for the black mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley, who lost the California governorship in 1982 despite polls that had showed him in the lead, apparently because a small percentage of respondents would rather lie to a pollster than admit to opposing a candidate on the ground of his race.

The Kohut Lacuna:

Andrew Kohut, of the Pew Research Center, published an Op-Ed in the Times about the failure of polls to predict the outcome of a primary in New Hampshire between Clinton and Obama. He had a theory: undetected racism among working-class whites. Clinton, he noted, beat Obama among whites with family incomes under fifty thousand dollars and also among those who hadn’t attended college. “Poorer, less well-educated white people refuse surveys more often than affluent, better-educated whites,” Kohut wrote. “Polls generally adjust their samples for this tendency. But here’s the problem: these whites who do not respond to surveys tend to have more unfavorable views of blacks than respondents who do the interviews.”

On top of the effects of respondents lying to pollsters, it also looks like poorer, less well-educated voters are less likely to agree to answer the questions posed.

Looking at these polls and hearing the chest thumping from various democratic leaning blogs, I fervently hope that people are not lying to the pollster and poorer, less educated people know that they need to vote with their interests of self preservation at heart.

Look, I know that Obama is a politician and there is only so much we could actually expect from politicians. Remember the adage, politics makes for strange bedfellows… But the effort and the sincerity behind Obama’s ideas for propping up the middle class and the fact that he actually mentions that health care is a right to be enjoyed by all citizens should make the poorer, less educated whites think again and disprove the Kohuts and Bradley’s.

The pictures above depict the watercolor paintings of dead birds by artist Noel Grunwaldt. She is currently on with her first solo show at the Stellan Holm Gallery in Chelsea. The show runs from Sept 12 - Oct 25. She has an MA in Studio Arts from SUNY Albany and lives and works in upstate NY.

Chelsea outing on a warm January day

Yesterday was one of the warmest days in January. I decided to take a quick jaunt through some promising shows in Chelsea and here is what we have...

Stellan Holm gallery had a group exhibition of oil and acrylic paintings from international artists that were larger than life titled, well: 'Larger Than Life'. The black and white face of Emilie (picture below) painted by Martin Borowski stood out from the other paintings on display there for its attention to detail and a Chuck Close type airbrushing that must have been done to attain this level of realism. Of course, it would not have looked any different from a large scale blowup of Emilie’s face using a high definition black and white photograph, but a self same attempt in acrylic takes balls.

George Billis Gallery is showing the works of Daniel Phill. The works are primarily wild flowers done in lush acrylic. For some reason, I tend to detest flower pictures because of the repetitious and cloying sense of the subject… However, this one stood out for its artful transition between the abstract and the figurative accentuated with the help of heavy impasto. The artist is said to pour, drip, smear and scrape paints of varying viscosities (that was from the gallery statement - sounded original and clichéd for some reason)... I guess too much of abstraction is not playing too well with a lot of people... hence, a safer and a more understandable bet for potential buyers might be to look for artists who work in the middle ground of 'abstraction and realism'. I see a lot of this kind of 'middle ground' work nowadays… All said, I did like these paintings a lot…

Gallery Henoch is showing the paintings of Stephen Wright. After seeing Lucian Freud at the MoMA last week, I must say that it takes quite a bit to be awed by more paintings of white peoples’ skin and flesh, but, I must say: I was still taken in by this one. White epidermal bounty with all of its attendant frailties, garnishes and warts reveled by the harsh gaze of the studio lamp rendered in full frontal display on canvas is in abundance here. His style reminded me of academic painters for some reason – just the right tones and the workmanship on canvas…

Kent Gallery is showing works by Mike Cockrill who continues his explorations of children’s psyche as they pass the transitions between youth and adolescence. The correct lingo for that stage is now defined by the word tweens – (guess they are growing into a market segment all by themselves – otherwise why coin a new term for them?)... The works are sexually charged and aims to bring back repressed childhood memories. With the ever present danger of advertisers trying very hard to get young pre-pubescent girls (and sometimes boys) to strut their wares, it is indeed a statement that the artist is making with these paintings. The effects of innocuous indoctrination of sexual mores veiled under adverts for items of mass consumption into the younger minds doubtless will have real consequences for the future when we would live in a world governed by them. Get ready for more cultural cataclysms in our old ages. Mike Cockrill’s style was a bit sloppy but high on ideas and surrealism.


Pictures from Group exhibition at Stellan Holm

Martin Borowski, 'Emilie', 2007, Acrylic on linen, 74" X 132"

Brendan Cass, 'Dutch Landscape', 2007, Acrylic on canvas, 84" X 132"; Note: Heavy impasto. Between abstraction and the literal. Full of color, the artist is said to draw from photographs in travel brochures. Not too sure what is up with the blue gash in the middle of this huge canvas. Not very appealing, but the rest of it was lush enough for me...

Till Gerhard, 'Holle der Saison', Oil on canvas, 90" X 118"

Pictures from Daniel Phill at George Billis

Daniel Phill, ‘Banksia’, Acrylic on canvas, 41” X 61”

Daniel Phill, ‘Frisson’, Acrylic on canvas, 37” X 61”

Daniel Phill, ‘Ipomoea’, Acrylic on canvas, 61” X 49”

Pictures from Stephen Wright at Gallery Henoch

Stephen Wright, ‘Figure’, Oil on Canvas, 66” X 30”

Stephen Wright, ‘Mid-Century Modern’, Oil on Canvas, 46” X 44”

Stephen Wright, ‘Figure, Robe, Sofa’, Oil on Canvas, 66” X 44”

Pictures from Mike Cockrill at Kent

Mike Cockrill, 'The Best Pumpkin', 2006, Oil on canvas, 56" x 44"

Mike Cockrill, 'The Broken Fence', 2007, Watercolor and pencil on paper, 19" x 25"